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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/07 11:41
Weak Exports Push the Hog Complex Lower
There's a single bid currently being offered in the North at $186, but still
no sales have developed.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading mostly higher
into Thursday's noon hour, but the lean hog complex is trading mixed as traders
grumble about the morning's export sales report. There's currently a single bid
being offered in the North at $186, but otherwise, the cash market is still
silent. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is
down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.63 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,00 mt for 2024 -- a
marketing year low -- were down 43% from the previous week and 45% from the
prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (2,100 mt),
Japan (2,000 mt) and Canada (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 14,700 mt for 2024 --
a marketing year low -- were down noticeably from the previous week and the
prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,300 mt), South
Korea (2,100 mt) and Panama (200 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
This morning's export report wasn't anything for the live cattle complex to
dote over as the report highlighted a marketing year low for beef exports, but
thankfully the jump in the Dow Jones yesterday continues to push a strong
underlying supportive nature throughout the live cattle market. December live
cattle are up $0.32 at $185.72, February live cattle are up $0.30 at $187.02
and April live cattle are down $0.05 at $187.75. A single bid is currently
being offered in Nebraska at $186, but no feedlot managers have jumped at the
offer. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $190 to $192 but are still not
established in the North. At this point without much packer interest having
developed, it's likely that the week's trade could be delayed until Friday. It
is supportive from a technical sense to see the spot December live cattle
contract trading above the market's 40-day moving average as this possibly
means that Tuesday's bottom will serve as a short-term support plane for the
complex.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.89 ($312.70) and select down
$0.26 ($282.94) with a movement of 75 loads (26.16 loads of choice, 16.27 loads
of select, 4.02 loads of trim and 28.40 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Some of the nearby feeder cattle contracts are trading slightly lower, but
overall, the market is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour. Between
the support of the live cattle complex's higher trend and the continued support
of strong buyer demand in the countryside, the market has all the support it
needs to continue to press onward into the afternoon. November feeders are down
$0.17 at $247.52, January feeders are up $0.02 at $244.05 and March feeders are
up $0.02 at $241.75. It is worth noting that the spot January contract is
continuing to hold its position above the market's 100-day moving average which
is significant from a technical sense.
LEAN HOGS:
Given the morning's export sales report, which highlighted a marketing year
low for the hog market, and the fact that morning carcass price is down over
$1.00 -- it's surprising that the hog complex was trading higher this morning.
As the noon hour approaches, the nearby contracts are trading slightly lower,
but the deferred contracts are continuing to trade higher. The morning's
carcass price was mainly pulled lower because of the $10.47 decline in the
belly. December lean hogs are down $0.92 at $81.20, February lean hogs are down
$0.05 at $85.10 and April lean hogs are down $0.05 at $88.67.
The projected lean hog index for 11/5/2024 is up $0.45 at $90.24, and the
actual index for 11/4/2024 is up $0.41 at $89.79. Hog prices are higher on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.96 with a weighted average price of
$85.26, ranging from $79.50 to $87.00 on 860 head and a five-day rolling
average of $83.23. Pork cutouts total 149.33 loads with 127.96 loads of pork
cuts and 21.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.29, $100.86.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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