Cash Market Moves             09/28 09:32

   Rain Delayed Soybean Harvest Strengthens Spot Basis

   Processors in parts of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Southern Minnesota and 
Nebraska are pushing hard for old crop beans due to delayed harvest.



Mary Kennedy
DTN Analyst

   Beans hate wet feet. Soybeans and even corn fields are too soaked to 
harvest, and, in some cases, there is concern for quality loss. That is causing 
soybean processors especially to push basis levels to extreme highs for spot 
old crop soybeans.

   In eastern, central and south central Nebraska, rainfall totals have ranged 
from 3.89 inches to 4.73 inches in September. Areas of south central Nebraska 
saw up to 4.8 inches of rain over the past 48 hours according to Central 
Nebraska Today.  

   In St. Joseph, Missouri, rainfall totals are over 5 inches for September 
according to the National Weather Service. In Hutchinson, Kansas, there has 
been approximately 5.61 inches so far in September 2026 according to Weather 
Underground. 

   According to the Minnesota Star Tribune, New Richland, Minnesota, received 
approximately 8 to 9 inches of rain during a "torrential" storm over the 
weekend of September 18--20, 2026.

   In September alone, Iowa has had excessive rains with widespread totals 
reaching 2 to 5 inches or more across large parts of central, southern, and 
eastern portions of the state. Dubuque has seen 8.78 inches so far in 
September, Des Moines has seen 12.92 inches and Cedar Rapids has had 9.99 
inches, according to Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Here is a list of all rainfall 
totals so far in September in Iowa: 
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ASOS/reports/mon_prec.php

   When you look at bids in the cities in Iowa near rain soaked fields, there 
are at least five soybean processors posting a basis of + $1.00 over the 
November (X) futures. These bids have a short arrival window which has been 
stretched almost daily in the past few weeks. Other Iowa processors are posting 
a basis of + $0.50X to + $0.75X to +80X for a short window as well, according 
to GraInformant.

   It doesn't stop there. At least two Nebraska plants are bidding +65X to 
$1.00X with "arrival by" date stretched out to October 2. In Mankato, 
Minnesota, spot soybean basis jumped from minus -5X to +50X last week and 
Fairmont, Minnesota was 20 cents stronger at +70X by Sept. 30. In Kansas City, 
Missouri, basis jumped 20 cents to +$1.00 for "spot" which is relative right 
now until harvest starts.

   WHAT FARMERS ARE SAYING

   Jay Sorg told DTN that "In New Richland, Minnesota, we will probably be well 
into the 2nd week of October before we can even think about harvesting 
soybeans."

   Cale Carlson, Marquette, Nebraska told DTN they are about two weeks behind 
on soybean harvest which normally starts around September 10-15.

   "Normally, we are about 50% done by now and typically we finish soybeans in 
September and start corn in October. However, this year when I started soybeans 
on one good day, they were 15.7 moisture and I only got about 20 acres cut so 
we switched over to corn and it started raining.

   "As of today, Sunday, Sept. 27, it's foggy and I'm drying corn. There are 
big chances of rain Monday night into Tuesday through the rest of the week with 
3 to 5 inches forecast on already saturated fields. I don't imagine myself here 
in central Nebraska harvesting soybeans for at least a week to 10 days. I will 
continue to keep trying to mud out a corn crop to keep moving forward with 
harvest progress."

   Carlson added, "I plant early maturity soybeans early in April and even my 
3.1 soybeans, which I planted early, the leaves are not falling off and they 
won't be ready to harvest even if field conditions were good just because of 
the cool damp finish in September." 

   A 3.1 soybean is a soybean variety with a relative maturity rating of Group 
3.1, meaning it is a mid-season crop designed to mature at a specific time 
based on day length and temperature, according to the Illinois Soybean 
Association Field Advisor.

   "Normally, a lot of co-ops and processors have secured a large amount of 
soybeans by this time. However, with the muddy field conditions and the wet 
soybeans, they've received very little. They are also trying to fill up and 
load trains, and there are very few soybeans coming in. So, in our area, basis 
has jumped $1.00 and is good through the end of September. There are some guys 
that do have old crop soybeans and can't get them to market because of muddy 
roads. It's been since 2009 since I've seen it this bad," said Carlson.

   WEATHER FORECAST DISMAL

   The outlook for the upcoming week of Sept. 28 is not good. John Baranick, 
DTN Ag Meteorologist noted in the DTN forecast on Sunday, Sept. 27, for the 
central and Southern Plains that "Scattered showers continued over the weekend 
and will increase with a front and remnant hurricane moving through this week. 
Areas of heavy rain are forecast across much of the region. That will certainly 
help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could 
cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field and slow any 
progress for harvest or winter planting."

   For the Midwest, "Scattered showers developed west of the Mississippi River 
over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress, but areas to the east were 
warm and dried out, which is promoting progress. A front will move across the 
region this week with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. 
Areas of heavy rain may be a problem, though Iowa and Missouri are the favored 
targets with lower potential elsewhere in the region. If Iowa and Missouri 
indeed see heavy rain, it will continue to bring problems to both states in 
terms of grain quality and harvest delays."

    

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on social platform X @MaryCKenn




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