Market Matters Blog           05/04 12:37

   Spring Wheat Planting Slowed by Cold Soil and Wet Fields

   It's been slow going for spring wheat planting in some parts of North Dakota 
and South Dakota as the cold temperatures are still hanging around.

Mary Kennedy
DTN Basis Analyst

   The theme among most of the farmers I spoke with in the past 10 days has 
been how late planting is because of weather. It isn't helping that North 
Dakota and parts of South Dakota are still seeing freezing temperatures for 
their morning lows. The National Weather Service on May 1 issued freeze 
warnings from 1 a.m. to 8 a.m. CDT Saturday, May 2, for much of North Dakota 
and central, east-central, south-central and southeast South Dakota.

   Here is what various farmers and elevator managers told me about spring 
wheat planting and other crops. There have been a few success stories, but not 
many.

   "We planted 566.7 acres of spring wheat," said Chris Johnson, C&S Farms 
Inc., Great Bend, North Dakota, on April 22. "Twenty-five years ago, we put in 
about 1,200 acres. Gradually less and less goes in. Conditions very good for 
our Fargo Clay soils. About a week later than average for my area."

   In eastern North Dakota, Darrin Schmidt said, "As of April 28 we have not 
seeded a field yet, but I would think by tomorrow or the next day we'll be 
seeding our first field of spring wheat. Seems to be highly variable on guys 
starting or not. Usually, guys east of us start a week or two ahead of us and 
that isn't the case this year. We plan on around 45-50% of our usual acres. 
Financially with all the discounts that can pop up, it's hard to make wheat 
cash flow this year.

   "The market has rallied these last few weeks so that makes breakeven closer, 
but it kind of depends on if you booked all your fertilizer or not. Fertilizer 
availability isn't an issue, but cost definitely is. Last time I checked it was 
$940/ton for urea, and a sales agronomist said it could be over $1,000 in 
season. So if you have to buy that, it'll hurt the pocketbook. We booked all to 
most of ours in December, but there are a few that didn't and they will have a 
tough time breaking even. With the rise in fertilizer price, my crop plan was 
set in stone when that happened. Couldn't change it if I wanted to, and I can't 
imagine it isn't the same for other farmers."

   Cory Tryan, grain manager at Alton Grain Terminal LLC, Alton, North Dakota, 
said as of April 29, "Ground temps are cold yet and soil condition is barely 
ready. They are spreading fertilizer and have only planted a few fields of 
spring wheat. Most of the fertilizer was pre-bought last fall, with current 
inventory near full. Not expecting any big changes in rotation unless weather 
dictates it going forward."

   Austin Sundeen, east of Devils Lake, North Dakota, said, "Spring is taking 
its sweet time showing up this year. As I write this Friday, May 1, we woke up 
to a cool 25 degrees Fahrenheit with more cold weather coming the middle of 
next week. A few guys have got a little wheat in south of me 20 miles, but 
that's about all that's been going in the ground. We started putting down 
phosphate ahead of soybeans to keep from going crazy in the shop.

   "Fertilizer prices have had some changes to guys' operations, but luckily I 
had all booked last fall. With that said, I think wheat acres will be down this 
year and bean acres will be up. We have a little durum going on again for a 
neighbor we custom farm for, but that's all I've heard about that crop around 
here. Corn continues to be king in our operation and the rise in price over the 
last week makes that look like a strong move. We fell behind this spring, but 
the calendar says not to worry yet and precipitation in the 10-day looks low. 
With all that being said, I think there is a little more optimistic outlook on 
this year than a few months ago."

   In East Grand Forks, Minnesota, Matthew Krueger on April 30 said, "No corn 
in yet, but starting wheat tomorrow (maybe). Still waiting on low areas to dry 
fully. It's still quite wet underneath and so we have to make sure even with 
spreading we're not compacting the soil. Soil temps are warmer than I thought, 
around 43-46 degrees, and honestly I would have thought them to be closer to 30 
than 50 with our air temps. Hope to be rolling on corn by next week. At that 
point I'm looking at the calendar versus soil temps. Fertilizer was all booked 
earlier so no crop plan changes. Company has the tons there too so we should be 
good. Now 2027, who knows. Ha."

   Matt Undlin, Lansford, North Dakota, said on April 29, "Last year I was all 
corn and beans, but this year one-fifth of the acres will be back to hard red 
spring wheat (HRSW). Fertilizer availability is not an issue, but the 
fluctuations in price have been bothersome. This year the temps have been cold 
and we are sitting with a little extra moisture, so we are going to start this 
weekend, which is probably about average starting date in our area. This area 
is going to be mainly corn, soy, sunflower and canola. The price rise recently 
is buying more HRSW acres though."

   In western North Dakota, Riley Schriefer said on April 28, "Just getting 
started. The oats are in and we are progressing through some spring wheat 
before we start canola. Temps have been getting really cold at night yet. There 
is more wheat than normal here due to rotation. Sufficient moisture in the 
fields so far. No fertilizer issue; we pre-bought 100% of our needs before the 
Iran conflict."

   On April 29, Allan Rohrich, Zeeland, North Dakota, said, "We have not 
started spring wheat yet. A low of 23 degrees overnight yet. Cold temperatures 
and wet soils have been holding us back. Acres are about 60% of normal. 
Fertilizer was purchased early for the acres we had planned. No added acres 
even with a price rally now because of the increase in fertilizer prices."

   A farmer in northeast Montana said, "Planting underway -- hectic as usual. 
We were a little short-bought on urea so will buy some expensive stuff to 
average up the prices and will cut back on planted acres again due to input 
increase and lack of reserve moisture. There will be lots of lentil acres due 
to no N (nitrogen) needed, but those prices are also muted compared to years 
past. We had an inch-plus snow/rain event 7-10 days ago so seeding conditions 
are very good and fallow ground will grow a crop."

   Art Schultheis, Diamond-S Farms Inc., Colton, Washington, said, "Our local 
area is about 3 inches above normal for rainfall for the crop year starting 
Sept. 1. We really did not have any winter other than some cold temperatures 
for a few days here and there and we mostly had a small amount of snow cover 
when it was cold. We saved every bit of moisture we received over the winter. 
We have a great start to the year after three years of below-normal 
precipitation. Our winter wheat looks fabulous for this time of year. It looks 
to be at least 10 days ahead of normal for growth as it grew all winter. We 
will need continued moisture to support all the growth. Due to the price of 
wheat and MPCI-RP price guarantee, we re-cropped more acres than usual last 
fall as winter wheat will pay better than spring wheat.

   "We planted our spring wheat on March 26 (about a week ahead of normal) and 
it was emerging on April 11. That was the last time I was at the field as it is 
on a dirt road that has been inaccessible due to recent rains. We only planted 
130 acres of soft white spring wheat. The numbers just don't work well with 
costs and prices, but we are raising this field for seed for my son's 
brother-in-law who farms 70 miles north of us. They clean and treat their own 
seed but don't have enough storage bins, which we have."

   Schultheis added, "Trying to find niche markets to survive these days. We 
were able to get a seed contract on some forage oats that will pay better. We 
also swapped some acres to canola when we were able to contract spring canola 
for August delivery at $24.80/cwt."

   Ryan Wagner, Wagner Farms, Roslyn, South Dakota, said, "We got started on 
spring wheat April 23 and got three days of seeding done before rains put a 
halt to things Sunday and Monday. Hoping to get back in the field this weekend 
and get finished up, but a lack of heat and sunshine is making the drying 
process slow. We are sticking with our typical rotation and seeding roughly the 
same amount of acres as we normally do and were fortunate to get all our 
fertilizer down in the fall." Wagner also told me on April 30 that soil temps 
were in the upper 30s to low 40s and there were very few row crops going in 
around him.

   "In the 25 years of farming, I have come to realize it's always something -- 
weather, commodity prices, politics, input costs, etc. -- and at the end of the 
day, we just do our thing and do the best we can and try to make some money to 
provide for our family," Undlin said.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at Mary.Kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on social platform X @MaryCKenn




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